Коротаев Андрей Витальевич

Factors of socio-political (in)stability in West Africa

2024 · ARTICLE · en

В последнее время Западная Африка представлена в исследовательской литературе как эпицентр социально-политической не- стабильности. Это в наибольшей степени касается таких стран, как Мали, Нигерия или Буркина-Фасо. Однако стоит отметить, что, несмотря на ряд факторов, которые могли бы привести к потенциальной дестабилизации в Гане, эта страна в последние годы характеризуется довольно высоким уровнем социально-политической стабильности. Данное исследование направлено на определение факторов, вызывающих дестабилизацию поли- тического режима в Западной Африке, путем оценки важных показателей государственного управления, социально-политической стабильности, эко- номического развития, а также некоторых исторических событий. В статье используется подход смешанных методов, а также качественный сравни- тельный анализ (QCA) в качестве инструмента анализа. Авторы приходят к выводу, что среди дестабилизирующих факторов в изучаемом регионе наи- более значимыми можно считать следующие: слабые механизмы подотчет- ности в государстве, несовершенные структуры управления и коррупция. При этом, если речь идет о Гане, то в данном случае основными факторами стабилизации ситуации в стране становятся такие показатели, как разви- тая медиаинфраструктура, активное гражданское общество, инициативы руководства страны по формированию межрелигиозной толерантности и сотрудничества, а также общая культура мира, присущая ганцам.

A Troubled Return to the Homeland: Syrian Circassians in Southern Russia

2024 · ARTICLE · en

The humanitarian crisis in Syria has fuelled the Circassian issue in Russia. Escaping from the war, hundreds of Syrian Circassians (Adyghe) chose Russia as their destination because their ancestors came to the Middle East from the North Caucasus. Syrian Circassians have faced difficulties in entering Russia and staying there regardless of the state’s ability to accept a large number of immigrants. In the case of receiving Syrian Adyghe, Russian authorities were suspicious about: (1) growing Circassian activism before the Olympics in Sochi; (2) ISIS infiltration; and (3) ethnic tensions in the Southern regions. Nevertheless, many Syrian Circassians settled in Russia due to the support extended by local Adyghe. Our findings are based on interviews and public polls conducted in Karachay-Cherkessia in 2017 and Adygea in 2018.

Arab Spring, Its Aftermath, and James Davies’ Inverted J-Curve

2024 · ARTICLE · en

We show that in the post-revolutionary Tunisian case we are dealing here with the famous inverted J-curve effect that was first described by James C. Davies (1962)—risks of revolutionary destabilization are especially high when a pronounced economic slowdown comes after a few years of dynamic economic growth that creates inflated expectations. And this destabilization can well be not only revolutionary, but also quasi-revolutionary and counterrevolutionary; it can well result in regime change—and not only in democratic, but also in authoritarian direction, as well as in general state breakdown.

Terrorism and Political Contention. New Perspectives on North Africa and the Sahel Region

2024 · BOOK · en

Against the backdrop of terrorist activity and the emergence of new conflicts in the MENA region, this book identifies factors of political contestation and analyzes organizational forms and dynamics of terrorism and conflict in North Africa and the Sahel. Written by an international selection of authors from different fields, the book covers topics such as the radicalization of terrorist organizations operating in the region, the financing of terrorism, the role of migration, the radicalization of women, the influence and motives of great powers and external factors such as France in the region, and the impact of the war in Ukraine. The book appeals to scholars and students of politics and international relations as well as African and Middle Eastern studies.

Coupvolution as a Mechanism of Regime Change in the Sahel

2024 · CHAPTER · en

Revolutionary History of Niger: From Independence to 2023 Coup

2024 · CHAPTER · en

Introduction: Terrorism and Political Contention in North Africa and the Sahel Region

2024 · CHAPTER · en

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Non-beverage alcohol consumption in Russia: new evidence from Jewish Autonomous Oblast

2024 · ARTICLE · en

Aims. Previous studies in Izhevsk, Novosibirsk and Kazan have found that non-beverage alcohol takes huge part in alcohol consumption in Russia. Whereas those places are relatively well-doing cities, there is no studies about such problem in the most depressive regions of Russia. The aim of this study was to investigate correlates or factors associated with nonbeverage alcohol consumption in eastern Russian regions on the example of the Jewish Autonomous Oblast and to assess effectiveness of implemented in Russia policies to control consumption of non-beverage alcohol. Methods. A survey of adults in the Jewish Autonomous Oblast of Russia was performed on workdays to assess non-beverage drinking patterns in summer 2022. The questionnaire included questions about socio-demographic status and alcohol use, including non-beverage alcohol consumption and drinking patterns. We use logistic regression for identifying risk factors of consuming non-beverages. Results. Firstly, about 30% of individuals suffering from alcohol problems drink non-beverage alcohol. Secondly, those who regularly consume non-beverage alcohol compared with those who chronically drink legal strong alcohol are on average more likely to experience the negative effects of alcohol consumption. Thirdly, income and marriage are the main factors that have a significant negative association with surrogate alcohol consumption, and age shows a curvilinear relationship. Conclusions. New anti-surrogate policy in Russia with the increase of the minimum price to pharmacy alcohol and strict enforcement of existing restrictions on the sale of non-beverage alcohol, which could further gain a foothold on the alcohol market in Russia with a drop in real incomes of the population, is needed.

Africa—The Continent of the Future. Demographic and Economic Challenges and Opportunities

2024 · ARTICLE · en

Africa is the most rapidly growing continent, and its growth (demographic, economic, cultural etc.) will inevitably influence the World System (and the further, the stronger). The growth of African societies will bring at the same time both challenges and opportunities. The authors discuss both of them in detail. They consider Africa as the main intrigue of demographic transformations in the twenty-first century. But they also think that this continent can constitute a very important intrigue in other respects (economic, political, ethnical etc.). No doubt, in the future, African countries will produce many surprises both positive and negative.

Elections, Type of Regime and Risks of Revolutionary Destabilization. A Quantitative Analysis

2024 · ARTICLE · en

This analysis finds that the impact of elections on risks of armed insurrections is not statistically significant, whereas unarmed uprisings/nonviolent revolutions are more likely to occur in the election year. It is also shown that the influence of elections on unarmed revolutionary destabilization had tended to grow with time. The election year became a significant factor of nonviolent revolutionary destabilization only after the end of the Cold War, and the impact of elections on the probability of unarmed revolutions has become particularly strong in this century (when elections in the given year increase the probability of an unarmed uprising more than three times). At the same time, holding elections primarily increases the risks of revolutionary destabilization in intermediate regimes (anocracies). But even among anocracies, open anocracies/ partial democracies stand out, as here elections increase the probability of unarmed uprisings in an especially dramatic way.