Коротаев Андрей Витальевич

Развитые и развивающиеся страны: к общей цели на разных скоростях

2022 · ARTICLE · ru

Цель: анализ ожидаемых экономических трансформаций в XXI в. в различных странах мира. Методы: абстрактно-логический метод, методы моделирования социально-экономической самоорганизации, методы долгосрочного прогнозирования мировой динамики, теория институциональных матриц. Результаты: на основе проведенного анализа сделаны следующие выводы: 1) в ближайшие десятилетия в мире будет наблюдаться сложный континуум видов, переходов, комбинаций и форм экономических укладов (с повышением удельного веса постиндустриальных форм). При этом в развитых странах будет наблюдаться смещение в сторону усиления распределительных институтов, а в развивающихся странах, продолжающих процессы экономической и социально-политической модернизации, – смещение в сторону усиления рыночных институтов; 2) усилится процесс интернационализации рабочей силы (за счет развития удаленного найма) наряду с интернационализацией капитала; 3) новая технологическая волна (2030–2070-х гг.) принесет новые ресурсы и расширит сферу для производства и услуг, что будет поддерживать экономический рост как в развитых, так и в развивающихся странах; 4) при этом в одних направлениях, в частности в медицине, неизбежна очень значительная регламентация экономической деятельности, а в других направлениях, в частности в робототехнике, могут усилиться экономические механизмы рыночно-корпоративного типа; 5) таким образом, важнейшей задачей в ближайшие десятилетия является повышение гибкости социально-экономического развития всех стран мира, а именно обретения способности к регулированию соотношения рыночных и распределительных механизмов в зависимости от сфер деятельности и решаемых задач без давления идеологических догм. Научная новизна: на основе анализа исторических тенденций с использованием теории институциональных матриц сделан прогноз экономических трансформаций в XXI в. в странах различного типа, обоснованы ожидаемые особенности этих трансформаций. Практическая значимость: предложенные методы долгосрочного прогноза могут быть использованы в системах стратегического планирования в Российской Федерации.

Urbanization, the Youth, and Protest: A Cross-National Analysis

2022 · ARTICLE · en

Demographic changes associated with the transformation from traditional to advanced economies are the basis for many of today’s theories of violent and non-violent protest formation. Both levels of urbanization and the size of the “youth bulge” have shown to be reliable measures for predicting protest events in a country. As these two processes result from modernization, it seems logical to hypothesize that the combined effect of the rise in urbanization and the increase in the youth population, urban youth bulge, would be a more relevant predictor for protests. Our tests on cross-national timeseries data from 1950 to 2010 for 98 countries reveal that the combined effect of the two forces is an important predictor of anti-government protests. It may seem that the role of the urban youth bulge would appear to be an issue of the past as in more recent decades the proportion of the urban youth tends to decline in most countries of the world. However, this factor tends to be very relevant for many developing countries where both youth bulges have been growing for several decades and the general urban population is on the rise.

The global terrorist threat in the Sahel and the origins of terrorism in Burkina Faso

2022 · ARTICLE · en

The article examines the reasons for the increasing terrorist activity in Burkina Faso after the revolution in 2014. For decades, the Sahel has been one of the most unstable regions in Africa and the Afrasian zone of instability. However, in the 2010s the Sahel has experienced a dramatic increase in terrorist activity: by 2015, the number of terrorist attacks there increased more than seven times compared to 2010. At the same time, the dynamics of terrorist activity in Burkina Faso had its specific characteristics compared to the rest of the Sahel. The growth of terrorism in this country was largely a consequence of the overthrow of the B. Compaoré regime. The new authorities were unable to maintain security at the same level. This can be explained, on the one hand, by the stable agreements that had been settled between Compaoré and terrorist structures. His resignation destroyed all the informal ties and agreements that the regime had established with regional jihadist organizations, freeing their hands to infiltrate Burkina Faso quickly and easily. On the other hand, the dissolution of the Regiment of Presidential Security (precisely the structure largely responsible for the fight against terrorism) after the failed military coup attempt of September 2015 played an important role. The new leadership stripped the country of the protection they had against jihadist organizations poised to infiltrate across the border into Burkina Faso. As a result, after 2015, a very safe country in terms of terrorism faced an unprecedented increase in terrorist activity.

The Future of Revolutions in the 21st Century and the World System Reconfiguration

2022 · ARTICLE · en

At present the World System is undergoing considerable transformations. We expect that in connection with the World System reconfiguration the number of revolutions as well as their role as a means of the world-system transformation may increase noticeably. We analyze the future of revolutions in a number of aspects, namely: (1) the evaluation of their number in comparison with the previous period; (2) their role as a tool defining the future progress of societies and the World System; (3) possible changes of the forms of revolutionary events.

Conclusion. How Many Revolutions Will We See in the Twenty-First Century?

2022 · CHAPTER · en

Egypt’s 2011 Revolution. A Demographic Structural Analysis

2022 · CHAPTER · en

Highlighting the events of the Egyptian Revolution of 2011, various mass-media have tried to explain what caused the riots. Most explanations followed the same pattern, blaming economic stagnation, poverty, inequality, corruption and unemployment. A typical explanation is that “Egyptians have the same complaints that drove Tunisians onto the streets: surging food prices, poverty, unemployment and authoritarian rule that smothers public protests quickly and often brutally” (e.g., Al-Arabiya, 2011; Al-Lawati, 2011; Stangler & Litan, 2011). Such unanimity incites us to investigate to what extent those accusations reflected Egyptian reality. So we decided to take each of the abovementioned “revolutionary causes” and look into the actual dynamics of the relevant socioeconomic indicators in the years preceding the Egyptian Revolution.

The Arab Spring: Causes, Conditions, and Driving Forces

2022 · CHAPTER · en

Revolutions, Counterrevolutions, and Democracy

2022 · CHAPTER · en

The Phenomenon and Theories of Revolutions

2022 · CHAPTER · en

Introduction. Changing yet Persistent: Revolutions and Revolutionary Events

2022 · CHAPTER · en

This is the introduction of the volume, which the main purpose is to develop a comparative analysis of the revolutions of the twenty-first century, events in which revolutions manifested themselves in some respects in new ways (see Part IV [“Revolutions of the Early 21st Century. The Wave of Color Revolutions”], Part V [“Revolutions of the Early 21st Century. The Arab Spring Wave as an Important Revolutionary Turning Point”], and Part VI [“Revolutions and Revolutionary Movements Beyond the Arab Spring”] of this monograph). Yet in doing so, we found it was necessary to forge new analytical tools to help understand the causes of these revolutions, and to place them in proper perspective in the wider and deeper history of revolutions. In particular, we found it important to develop fresh ideas about how clusters of revolutions develop and are linked, and how revolutions are both shaped by, and in turn reshape, global relations and the World System.