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Саритас Оздчан

Институт статистических исследований и экономики знаний

Профиль на hse.ru ↗ тел.: +7 495 772 9590 * 12057
Публикаций
74
Языков
2
Наград
6
Конференций
0
Профиль Публикации (74) Курсы (3)

Профессиональные интересы

патентный анализНаучно-техническая и инновационная политикаФорсайт и перспективные исследованияМониторинг глобальных технологических и рыночных трендовСценарное планирование, сканирование горизонтов и построение дорожных карт

Должности

  • Профессор — Институт статистических исследований и экономики знаний, Департамент образовательных программ

Био

  • · Начал работать в НИУ ВШЭ в 2010 году.
  • · Научно-педагогический стаж: 13 лет.

Образование

  • 2006 · PhD: Манчестерский университет, тема диссертации: Systems Thinking for Foresight
  • 2000 · Магистратура: Стамбульский технический университет, специальность «Строительство зданий», квалификация «Магистр архитектуры»
  • 1998 · Специалитет: Istanbul Teknik Universitesi, специальность «Архитектура»

Опыт работы

  • · 2020 г.: с : Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики» (г. Москва, Россия). Заведующий лабораторией исследований науки и технологий Института статистических исследований и экономики знаний
  • · 2018 г. - 2019 г.: : Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики» (г. Москва, Россия). Заместитель заведующего лабораторией исследований науки и технологий Института статистических исследований и экономики знаний
  • · 2014 г.: настоящее время: Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики» (г. Москва, Россия). Профессор Департамента образовательных программ Института статистических исследований и экономики знаний
  • · 2009 г.: настоящее время: главный редактор международного англоязычного журнала Foresight: The journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy (www.emeraldinsight.com/fs.htm), специализирующегося в области исследований будущего, стратегического прогнозирования и формирования эффективной политики
  • · 2012 г. - 2018 г.: : Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики» (г. Москва, Россия). Ведущий научный сотрудник Лаборатории исследований науки и технологий Института статистических исследований и экономики знаний
  • · 2012 г.: : Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики» (г. Москва, Россия). Приглашенный лектор-профессор. Основные обязанности: чтение лекций и проведение семинаров в рамках программы повышения квалификации «Теория и практика Форсайт-исследований»; участие в реализуемых университетом проектах в области национального и секторального Форсайта
  • · 2003 г.: настоящее время: Институт инновационных исследований Университета Манчестера (г. Манчестер, Великобритания). Научный сотрудник. Основные обязанности: Проведение исследований концепции и методологии Форсайта; руководство и участие в международных и национальных исследовательских проектах; организация международных образовательных программ по Форсайту; чтение лекций и проведение семинаров в рамках образовательных магистерских программ и программ подготовки MBA и PhD, а также курсов повышения квалификации по Форсайту, сценарному планированию, управлению технологиями и устойчивым ростом
  • · 1998 г. – 2007 г.: : Стамбульский технический университет. Доцент кафедры управления проектными работами и строительством. Основные обязанности: проведение исследований и чтение лекций по управлению технологиями и инновациями, новым технологическим процессам, разработке новых продуктов и услуг, исследованию и анализу рынка, национальной и региональной политике
  • · 2006 г.: : региональный центр Организации объединенных наций по промышленному развитию (ЮНИДО, UNIDO) по технологическому Форсайту в странах Центральной и Восточной Европы и новых независимых государствах (г. Будапешт, Венгрия). Научный сотрудник. Основные обязанности: участие в разработке концепции реализации Программы ЮНИДО по технологическому Форсайту в странах Центральной и Восточной Европы и новых независимых государствах (программа действовала в
  • · 2006-2008: гг.); участие в экспертных совещаниях по вопросам реализации программы; разработка бизнес-плана реализации программы

Награды и поощрения

  • · Медаль 10 лет (декабрь 2021)
  • · Благодарность проректора НИУ ВШЭ (ноябрь 2021)
  • · Надбавка за академические достижения и вклад в репутацию НИУ ВШЭ (2020–2022)
  • · Надбавка за публикацию в международном рецензируемом научном издании (2019–2021, 2017–2019)
  • · Надбавка за регулярные публикации в международных рецензируемых научных изданиях (2023–2028, 2022–2027)
  • · Надбавка за статью в зарубежном рецензируемом журнале (2015–2017, 2013–2015)

Идентификаторы исследователя

Публикации (74)

Trend Monitoring for Linking Science and Strategy

2017 · ARTICLE · en

Rapid changes in Science & Technology (S&T) along with breakthroughs in products and services concern a great deal of policy and strategy makers and lead to an ever increasing number of Foresight and other types of forward-looking work. At the outset, the purpose of these efforts is to investigate emerging S&T areas, set priorities and inform policies and strategies. However, there is still no clear evidence on the mutual linkage between science and strategy, which may be attributed to Foresight and S&T policy making activities. The present paper attempts to test the hypothesis that both science and strategy affect each other and this linkage can be investigated quantitatively. The evidence for the mutual attribution of science and strategy is built on a quantitative trend monitoring process drawing on semantic analysis of large amount of textual data and text mining tools. Based on the proposed methodology the similarities between science and strategy documents along with the overlaps between them across a certain period of time are calculated using the case of the Agriculture and Food sector, and thus the linkages between science and strategy are investigated.

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Water resources – an analysis of trends, weak signals and wild cards with implications for Russia

2017 · ARTICLE · en

Purpose This paper focuses on the long-term situation with water resources, and water sector in particular, analyzed through a Foresight study. The authors attribute particular attention to implication for Russia, which is relatively better positioned regarding the availability of water resources. However, the country still faces challenges related to the protection of water resources, drinking water supply, water networks, consumption patterns, water discharge, treatment and re-use. The present study aims at identification and analysis of trends, factors and uncertainties in water supply, demand, use and re-use with a particular focus on sustainability of water systems; water use by households and industry; and new water services and products. Design/methodology/approach Research methodology in this paper involves a horizon scanning exercise for the identification of the key trends, factors and uncertainties along with the identification of weak signals of future emerging trends and wild cards in the form of future surprises, shocks and other unexpected events that may disrupt the preservation of water resources and the future of the water sector. Trends characterize broad parameters for shifts in attitudes, climate, policies and business focus over periods of several years that usually have global reach. These are usually experienced by everyone and often in similar contexts. Trends may represent threats, opportunities or a mixture of them, identified through underlying processes, possible events and other future developments. Findings A key systemic restriction of water use for the next decades both globally and in Russia relates to competition between agriculture, energy, manufacturing and household water use. Given that the amount of renewable water resources is almost fixed and even decreases because of pollution, circular economy solutions for water use will be required. Implications of the global trends identified in the study for Russia are dependent on the overall situation with water resources in the country. Russia has sufficient water supply: the overall intake of water for drinking and economic purposes in Russia amounts to 3 per cent of the total water resources, two-thirds of which are discarded back to water bodies. At the same time, there are substantial problems associated with the extremely uneven distribution of water resources across the country, as well as high “water intensity” of the Russian GDP. The Russian water sector is currently not very attractive for investors. Moreover, it has significantly less lobbying opportunities than other infrastructure sectors, and this complicates its institutional and financial positions. Meanwhile, there have been some positive changes with regard to activities with a short pay-off period. Originality/value The paper offers one of the first studies on the future of Russian water resources with a focus on the water supply and sanitation sector. A comprehensive approach to trends identification (not found in other studies on Russian water resources) allowed authors to identify social, technological, environmental, economic, policy and value-related global trends and uncertainties. Moreover, implications of these trends and uncertainties, as well as Russia-specific trends, were outlined.

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Changing characteristics of warfare and the future of Military R&D

2017 · ARTICLE · en

Wars have been a part of humanity since prehistoric times, and are expected to remain an important component of future human societies. Since the beginning of the history wars have evolved in parallel with the changes in Society, Technology, Economy, Environment, Politics and Values (STEEPV). The changing circumstances unavoidably affect the characteristics of warfare through its motivations, shape and size. Armies have adapted themselves to these changing characteristics of warfare through Revolutions in Military Affairs (RMAs) by introducing new military concepts and technologies. Based on the overview of the evolution of military technologies and concepts as a response to changing conditions, the aim of the present study is to anticipate what and how future technologies and concepts will shape warfare and drive impending RMAs. To answer this question, first the RMA literature is reviewed within a broader historical context to understand the extent to which military concepts and technologies affected the RMAs. Then, a time-based technological trend analysis is conducted through the analysis of military patents to understand the impact of technological developments on military concepts. Following the historical analyses, two scenarios are developed for the future of military R&D based on ‘concept-driven’ and ‘technology-driven’ factors. The article is concluded with a discussion about the implications of future scenarios for military R&D, and likely RMAs through the changes of concepts and technologies, and possible consequences such as transformations in organizational structures of armies, new skill and capacity requirements, military education systems, and decision-making processes.

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Атлас технологий будущего

2017 · BOOK · ru

Атлас технологий будущего представляет результаты проекта "Мониторинг глобальных технологических трендов", реализуемого Институтом статистических исследований и экономики знаний (ИСИЭЗ) Национального исследовательского университета "Высшая школа экономики" (НИУ ВШЭ) в рамках Программы фундаментальных исследований НИУ ВШЭ. Цель проекта - выявление ключевых тенденций научно-технологического развития, способных в долгосрочной перспективе оказать наибольшее влияние на развитие экономики и общества в России и за рубежом. Исследование опирается на специализированный информационный ресурс, созданный ИСИЭЗ НИУ ВШЭ и отражающий актуальные тенденции глобального технологического развития. Издание может представлять интерес для органов государственного управления, инвесторов, менеджеров, исследователей, студентов, всех интересующихся проблематикой научно-технологического развития.

Global challenges and trends in agriculture: impacts on Russia and possible strategies for adaptation

2017 · ARTICLE · en

Purpose – This paper aims to analyse the mainstream and emerging global challenges and trends in the global agriculture sector. The analysis leads to a discussion on the present state of the Russian agroindustry and possible future strategies for adaptation in the context of the rapidly changing global environment. Design/methodology/approach – The design of this study is based on the application of the core methods of Foresight. First, a trend analysis is undertaken using reviews and expert methods. Trends identified are mapped using a social, technological, economic, environmental, political and value (STEEPV) framework to ensure that a broad range of trends are covered, which may be stemming from various factors affecting the agriculture sector. The analysis of the big picture of global trends and challenges, interacting with country-specific structural factors, translates are translated into the opportunities and threats, which will in turn help to develop possible strategies for adaptation. Findings – This study develops two adaptive strategies for the development of the Russian agroindustry that are feasible in different short- and long–term time horizons. The first strategy is considered to be the most likely choice for the period before 2020. It includes radical imports’ substitution (of commodities as well as machinery and high-tech components) for ensuring national food security with inevitable temporary setbacks in efficiency and labour productivity. The second strategy, which becomes feasible after 2020, considers re-integrating Russia into global supply chains and expanding commodities exports (volumes and nomenclature) based on full-scale technological modernization with the use of international capital. Research limitations/implications – The study design is based on the assumption that Russia’s position as a country, which is highly self-sufficient on basic agricultural products and large exporter of crop commodities and fertilizers, will remain unchanged in the horizon of at least 20 years. However, long-term forecasts should also scrutinize the possibility of radical structural changes. Therefore, future research should concentrate on wild cards that can completely disrupt and transform the Russian agriculture industry and as well as the whole economy. Practical implications – This paper suggests a number of recommendations on national science and technology policy for the three main industries of the Russian agricultural sector: crop husbandry, animal breeding and food processing (the fisheries sector is excluded from the scope of this paper). In addition, this paper proposes a number of measures towards alleviating the institutional barriers to raise the investment attractiveness of the sector. Originality/value – The novelty of this paper lies in the originality of the research topic and methodology. The Russian agricultural sector has rarely been studied in the context of global agricultural challenges and threats taken on the highest level of aggregation beyond commodity market analysis or agro-climatic and logistics factors. There are few or no studies that lay out a map of possible long-term strategies of Russian agroindustry adaptive development. The Foresight methodology applied in this study is customized to better fit the practical purposes of the study.

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A Dynamic and Adaptive Scenario Approach for Formulating Science and Technology Policy

2017 · ARTICLE · en

Purpose Dynamic changes in the world bring challenges for making long-term future-oriented policy and strategy. A number of recent developments like drops in oil prices, increasing global conflicts, mass immigration, and economic stagnation have had disruptive effects on long-term policies and strategies. This new fast-changing landscape requires approaches and tools, which may help to practice adaptive Foresight for a dynamically changing context.Design/methodology/approach The scenario approach presented in the paper aims to develop and multiple time horizons by bringing together short-term forecasts and long-term exploratory and visionary scenarios. Each time horizon allows for re-considering and dynamically changing drivers and assumptions of scenarios and thus builds not a single linear, but multiple and dynamic pathways into the future. Following the presentation on the background and description of the methodology, the paper illustrates the proposed approach with a case study on Science and Technology (S&T) development in Russia. Findings The flexible scenario approach allows developing and strategies with similar adaptability and flexibility. Practical implications: The scenario approach presented in the paper may be applicable for foresight exercises at all levels of governance including national and international, regional, and corporate. Practical implications The scenario approach presented in the paper may be applicable for foresight exercises at all levels of governance including national and international, regional, and corporate. Originality/value A novel scenario approach is presented for the formulation of Science and Technology policy with an illustrative case study. Purpose: Dynamic changes in the world bring challenges for making long-term future-oriented policy and strategy. A number of recent developments like drops in oil prices, increasing global conflicts, mass immigration, and economic stagnation have had disruptive effects on long-term policies and strategies. This new fast-changing landscape requires approaches and tools, which may help to practice adaptive Foresight for a dynamically changing context. Design/methodology/approach: The scenario approach presented in the paper aims to develop and multiple time horizons by bringing together short-term forecasts and long-term exploratory and visionary scenarios. Each time horizon allows for re-considering and dynamically changing drivers and assumptions of scenarios and thus builds not a single linear, but multiple and dynamic pathways into the future. Following the presentation on the background and description of the methodology, the paper illustrates the proposed approach with a case study on Science and Technology (S&T) development in Russia. Findings: The flexible scenario approach allows developing and strategies with similar adaptability and flexibility. Practical implications: The scenario approach presented in the paper may be applicable for foresight exercises at all levels of governance including national and international, regional, and corporate. Practical implications: The scenario approach presented in the paper may be applicable for foresight exercises at all levels of governance including national and international, regional, and corporate. Originality/value: A novel scenario approach is presented for the formulation of Science and Technology policy with an illustrative case study.

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Evolution of connected health: a network perspective

2017 · ARTICLE · en

In this study, the evolution of the connected health concept is analysed and visualized to investigate the ever-tightening relationship between health and technology as well as emerging possibilities regarding delivery of healthcare services. A scientometric analysis was undertaken to investigate the trends and evolutionary relations between health and information systems through the queries in the Web of Science database using terms related to health and information systems. To understand the evolutionary relation between different concepts, scientometric analyses were conducted within five-year intervals using the VantagePoint, SciMAT, and CiteSpace II software. Consequently, the main stream of publications related to the connected health concept matching telemedicine cluster was determined. All other developments in health and technologies were discussed around this main stream across years. The trends obtained through the analysis provide insights about the future of healthcare and technology relationship particularly with rising importance of privacy, personalized care along with mobile networks and mobile infrastructure.

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A nanotechnology roadmapping study for the Turkish defense industry

2017 · ARTICLE · en

Purpose Technologies are constantly developed to address new demands and provide further opportunities. Owing to a number of potential application areas of nanotechnologies within this sector, the purpose of this study is to take defense as a case and propose a strategic roadmap for the use of nanotechnologies in the Turkish Defense Industry. Design/methodology/approach The study presented in this paper uses a bibliometric analysis of the most cited publications in the past decade with the aim of identifying the trends in the development of nanotechnology. Interviews were carried out with experts based on the featured words of bibliometric analysis (nanoparticles, nanostructure, self-assembly, drug delivery, graphene, etc.) to reveal the commercialization time of nanotechnology products and applications. After that, a survey was carried out with engineers for determining the possible emergence time of nanotechnology applications and/or products used in military up to year 2035. Finally, a roadmap was created based on the obtained data from bibliometric analysis, interviews and survey results. Findings Nanotechnology roadmap was prepared, one which would contribute to the preparation of the defense industry for the future and help in keeping up with technological developments. Research limitations/implications Because of the chosen research approach, the research results may lack generalizability. Therefore, researchers are encouraged to test the proposed propositions further. Interviews and surveys have limitation with the bounded rationality of corresponders. Practical implications The paper proposed a nanotechnology roadmap for the defense sector with a data-led foresight practice. Originality/value Performing such a study is considered to be crucial for the armies of developed and developing countries, so that the military sector also avails benefits from this revolutionary technology. Quantitative and qualitative methods were mixed for developing the roadmap.

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Глобальные технологические тренды

2016 · BOOK · ru

Публикация представляет результаты проекта «Мониторинг глобальных технологических трендов», реализуемого Институтом статистических исследований и экономики знаний (ИСИЭЗ) Национального исследовательского университета «Высшая школа экономики» (НИУ ВШЭ) в рамках Программы фундаментальных исследований НИУ ВШЭ. Цель проекта - выявление ключевых тенденций научно-технологического развития, способных в долгосрочной перспективе оказать наибольшее влияние на развитие экономики и общества в России и за рубежом. Мониторинг глобальных технологических трендов проводится по приоритетным направлениям развития науки и технологий в Российской Федерации. Исследование опирается на специализированный информационный ресурс, созданный ИСИЭЗ НИУ ВШЭ и отражающий актуальные тенденции глобального технологического развития. Издание может представлять интерес для органов государственного управления, компаний, научных организаций, вузов, институтов развития, технологических платформ, исследователей, преподавателей, аспирантов и студентов, всех интересующихся проблематикой научно-технологического развития.

Integration of Trend Monitoring into STI Policy

2016 · CHAPTER · en

Monitoring trends is a key requirement for national and corporate policy makers to stay up-to-date with socio-economic and technological transformations, to anticipate emerging developments at the global and local levels, and to use this intelligence to prioritize areas for innovation and investment. This chapter aims at discussing how the results of trend monitoring can be integrated into the process of Science, Technology and Innovation policy formulation and business Research & Development planning processes. The chapter starts with an overview of the relevant innovation literature that gives a background in a broader theoretical context, where the technology monitoring activities can be better justified conceptually. This background provides to generate two models, which will portray positioning and functioning of Global Trend Monitoring in the policy and business planning process. Some practical aspects of how and in what form the results of Global Trend Monitoring should be provided to the target communities of policy makers and business planners are elaborated throughout the chapter.

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Курсы (3)