Саритас Оздчан
Институт статистических исследований и экономики знаний
Профессиональные интересы
Должности
- Профессор — Институт статистических исследований и экономики знаний, Департамент образовательных программ
Био
- · Начал работать в НИУ ВШЭ в 2010 году.
- · Научно-педагогический стаж: 13 лет.
Образование
- 2006 · PhD: Манчестерский университет, тема диссертации: Systems Thinking for Foresight
- 2000 · Магистратура: Стамбульский технический университет, специальность «Строительство зданий», квалификация «Магистр архитектуры»
- 1998 · Специалитет: Istanbul Teknik Universitesi, специальность «Архитектура»
Опыт работы
- · 2020 г.: с : Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики» (г. Москва, Россия). Заведующий лабораторией исследований науки и технологий Института статистических исследований и экономики знаний
- · 2018 г. - 2019 г.: : Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики» (г. Москва, Россия). Заместитель заведующего лабораторией исследований науки и технологий Института статистических исследований и экономики знаний
- · 2014 г.: настоящее время: Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики» (г. Москва, Россия). Профессор Департамента образовательных программ Института статистических исследований и экономики знаний
- · 2009 г.: настоящее время: главный редактор международного англоязычного журнала Foresight: The journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy (www.emeraldinsight.com/fs.htm), специализирующегося в области исследований будущего, стратегического прогнозирования и формирования эффективной политики
- · 2012 г. - 2018 г.: : Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики» (г. Москва, Россия). Ведущий научный сотрудник Лаборатории исследований науки и технологий Института статистических исследований и экономики знаний
- · 2012 г.: : Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики» (г. Москва, Россия). Приглашенный лектор-профессор. Основные обязанности: чтение лекций и проведение семинаров в рамках программы повышения квалификации «Теория и практика Форсайт-исследований»; участие в реализуемых университетом проектах в области национального и секторального Форсайта
- · 2003 г.: настоящее время: Институт инновационных исследований Университета Манчестера (г. Манчестер, Великобритания). Научный сотрудник. Основные обязанности: Проведение исследований концепции и методологии Форсайта; руководство и участие в международных и национальных исследовательских проектах; организация международных образовательных программ по Форсайту; чтение лекций и проведение семинаров в рамках образовательных магистерских программ и программ подготовки MBA и PhD, а также курсов повышения квалификации по Форсайту, сценарному планированию, управлению технологиями и устойчивым ростом
- · 1998 г. – 2007 г.: : Стамбульский технический университет. Доцент кафедры управления проектными работами и строительством. Основные обязанности: проведение исследований и чтение лекций по управлению технологиями и инновациями, новым технологическим процессам, разработке новых продуктов и услуг, исследованию и анализу рынка, национальной и региональной политике
- · 2006 г.: : региональный центр Организации объединенных наций по промышленному развитию (ЮНИДО, UNIDO) по технологическому Форсайту в странах Центральной и Восточной Европы и новых независимых государствах (г. Будапешт, Венгрия). Научный сотрудник. Основные обязанности: участие в разработке концепции реализации Программы ЮНИДО по технологическому Форсайту в странах Центральной и Восточной Европы и новых независимых государствах (программа действовала в
- · 2006-2008: гг.); участие в экспертных совещаниях по вопросам реализации программы; разработка бизнес-плана реализации программы
Награды и поощрения
- · Медаль 10 лет (декабрь 2021)
- · Благодарность проректора НИУ ВШЭ (ноябрь 2021)
- · Надбавка за академические достижения и вклад в репутацию НИУ ВШЭ (2020–2022)
- · Надбавка за публикацию в международном рецензируемом научном издании (2019–2021, 2017–2019)
- · Надбавка за регулярные публикации в международных рецензируемых научных изданиях (2023–2028, 2022–2027)
- · Надбавка за статью в зарубежном рецензируемом журнале (2015–2017, 2013–2015)
Идентификаторы исследователя
- ORCID:
0000-0002-1243-0353 - ResearcherID:
A-1891-2014 - SPIN РИНЦ:
4964-7982 - Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.ru/citations?user=reOqbokAAAAJ&hl=ru&oi=ao
- Scopus AuthorID:
6506092892
Публикации (74)
Water Treatment and Purification: Technological Responses to Grand Challenges
2019 · CHAPTER · en
.
An evolutionary analysis of the innovation policy domain: Is there a paradigm shift?
2019 · ARTICLE · en
Researchers focus on understanding the nature of ecosystems and societies as well as explaining how paradigms change. These efforts are presented and disseminated through scholarly work in scientific literature. The pool of knowledge generated through databases allows one to track how our understanding changes and how paradigms shift through time. The present study is concerned with the domain of innovation policy, which is affected directly by societal and technological change and is a good archetype for demonstrating the scientific change perspective. In recent years, scientometrics has been frequently used to measure and analyze progress in science, technology and innovation. This study makes use of a combination of scientometric analysis and evolutionary framework analysis to demonstrate the evolution of innovation policy domain. Kuhn’s seminal approach is applied for classifying and interpreting the phases across the evolution of the domain within a 30-year timeframe. The analysis demonstrates that the innovation policy domain is at the “crisis stage” as a result of ongoing with transformations in the society, technology, economy and policy. These transformations affect both supply and demand sides of innovation and call for an evolution in the innovation policy domain. Although this by no means represents that the innovation policy domain is in a “deadlock”, the present study asserts that there is a new quest in innovation policy by adapting, re-framing or re-constructing the scope of the domain. The anticipated paradigm shift is expected to lead to a more de-centralized and distributed understanding of the world for innovation policy making.
Reinventing product-service systems: the case of Singapore
2019 · ARTICLE · en
Purpose This paper aims to discuss a foresight study conducted in Singapore’s national R&D agency to help science and technology decision makers identify key capability areas of R&D investment to support the manufacturing industry’s growth in the country and the region. Design/methodology/approach Using horizon scanning, scenario analysis and expert opinion, nine capabilities are identified as core areas to be developed to support the country’s future growth of product-service systems. Findings The results of a Delphi survey involving 30 industry and academic thought leaders recommend priorities of these capabilities. This paper concludes with a discussion of the study implications for theory, research and practice in the domain of servitisation and product-service systems. Research limitations/implications The foresight study presented here on the future of servitisation in Singapore demonstrates one of the first fully fledged applications of foresight in constructing a coherent vision of future product-service system markets. In this study, the authors applied systemic foresight methodology (SFM) comprising the first six phases: initiation (scoping), intelligence (scanning), imagination (scenarios), integration (priorities), interpretation (strategies) and implementation (action).For future research, an ideal step would be to proceed with the final phase of the SFM, impact, to develop indicators for servitisation and to monitor and evaluate the transition process. Practical implications Manufacturing and services are no longer distinct concepts with a clear divide. Manufacturing firms not only become more service dependent but also produce and provide services for their consumers. This transformation towards servitisation implies fundamental re-organisation of the production and management practices. Furthermore, through new business models, new and loyal customers will be gained, which will in turn bring additional income, while making the companies less prone to economic and business fluctuations. Social implications The results of this study have practical implications for policymakers of public and private sectors that are interested in playing a key role in future product-service system innovation. These have implications for developing the human and intellectual capital that are required for supporting the future innovation. Institutes of higher learning and vocational institutes should also consider incorporating new curricula and modules to build the capabilities for knowledge creation and transfer. Originality/value The findings of the present study on strategic growth areas and relevant critical capabilities provide new directions for research in the field of servitisation. Among the nine capabilities identified, the top three were advanced customer intelligence capability, socio-physical service quality, traceability and maintainability and integrated strategic decision-making. From the results, it is apparent that advanced customer intelligence capability is both an area of importance to Singapore and the world.
Global water trends and future scenarios for sustainable development: The case of Russia
2018 · ARTICLE · en
The grand challenge of accessing fresh water and sanitation is a global concern. The intensity of challenge depends on the geographical location as well as the level of socio-economic development of individual countries. The present paper first reviews the key water-related global trends and examines the global agenda on water issues. Next the focus is turned on Russia. Despite of being one of the water-rich countries in the world, Russia faces a number of substantial administrative and structural issues in the water sector. Therefore, it is crucial to develop a long-term strategy for the management of this infinite, but strategic resource. The present paper develops long-term scenarios and strategies for the Russian water sector towards the year 2030. The study draws upon an earlier horizon scanning activity that identified a set of global trends and uncertainties related to water sector. This horizon scanning work is extended into alternative futures for the Russian water sector by using a combination of Foresight methods including scenario analysis, data mining, and various expert methods. Scenarios developed are characterized by a set of qualitative and quantitative factors and indicators of future developments in three key domains for the water sector: (i) the sustainability of water systems; (ii) water use by households and industry; and (iii) new water products and services. Scenarios present four alternative trajectories for the water sector that may also be applied for certain countries whose water sector is comparable with the Russia. Among the scenarios developed in the study, it is concluded that the most probable ones are Problem conservation and Losses and accidents. However, there is a possibility to revert these scenarios into more desirable trajectories, which are presented in other scenarios. For instance, a variety of new clean water technologies may be widely applied to achieve the Nearly perfect future (visionary) scenario.
The Role of Wild Cards Analysis in Foresight Studies: The Case of Russia
2018 · PREPRINT · en
The wild cards conception as an element of foresight studies has been widely discussed by numerous scholars who have interest and qualification in strategic management field or STI policies from the end of the previous century. Some researchers focus their attention on the general key features of this phenomenon and its overall impact as well as origin, while others study possible applications of wild cards analysis in corporate and government sectors. The purpose of this research is to systematize knowledge about wild cards, determine their role in foresight practices and suggest an instrument for their detection and implementation into foresight research. For this reason, on the basis of a number of national and international foresight projects, we developed existing methodological approaches of wild cards identification, analysis and visual presentation. The results of the study were applied to Russian S&T Foresight 2030.
Wiring up multiple layers of innovation ecosystems: Contemplations from Personal Health Systems Foresight
2017 · ARTICLE · en
Many foresight exercises have been undertaken with the aim of improving the performance of innovation ecosystems. These ecosystems extend across different layers including the organisational, sectoral, regional, national and international dimensions. The interconnectedness of these layers has not have received much attention in foresight literature and practise. However, both the development and diffusion of innovations are subject to framework conditions not only within, but also across, multiple layers of innovation ecosystems. The design and management of foresight exercises are thus liable to addressing and serving these different layers — especially when the goal is to improve the performance and impact of such “interconnected and interdependent systems”. This paper develops further the concept of ‘multi-layered foresight’ by addressing multiple layers of innovation ecosystems in foresight design and management. We explore the implications of applying this type of foresight on improving systemic understanding, enhancing stakeholder networking and developing innovation capacities across the layers of ecosystems. The theoretical underpinnings are tested through a case study of the ‘Personal Health Systems (PHS) Foresight’ project. This project explored international future developments in the health sector, which is characterised by multiple disciplines, communities of practise, technologies, and geographical contexts. In the case of PHS the emerging innovation ecosystems are often conditioned by fragmented development communities, major barriers to market development, and duplication of efforts. The project combined analytical, social networking, online envisioning and scenario building methods to address complexity and create impact in multiple layers. Possible futures for personal health systems were explored through intense dialogues with stakeholders and a desirable future state was sketched through the success scenario methodology. The implications and strategic issues for different groups of stakeholders were outlined, enabling these stakeholders to articulate their efforts as part of a broader agenda at the multiple layers of innovation ecosystems.
Курсы (3)
-
Applied Foresight · 4 раза
2025/2026, 2024/2025, 2023/2024, 2022/2023 · Магистратура / Маго-лего · Анг
-
Foresight Theory and Concepts
2022/2023 · Магистратура · Анг
-
Foresight
2021/2022 · Магистратура · Анг