Шашнов Сергей Анатольевич

Human capital transformation under the influence of global trends

2026 · ARTICLE · en

Purpose The article proposes an approach for assessing the impact of global trends on human capital and its components. This study aims to contribute to the development of new approaches for assessing the impact of a set of global trends on human capital and its individual components. Design/methodology/approach A special methodology was developed based on the use of complex indices. The information base for these indices was formed using the results of a Delphi survey of almost 400 leading experts. The proposed approach allows for assessing the impact upon human capital and the groups of various trends. Assessments were made for 48 global trends classified into six groups (Health, Education and Labor, Society and Values, Economy, Policy and Regulation and Ecology and Environment). Findings The results allow us to determine the significance of the influence of individual trends upon human capital and its components and to rank the various trends by their influence on human capital and its components.

Российские разработчики о создании и востребованности отечественного индустриального ПО: результаты пилотного обследования

2026 · ARTICLE · ru

В статье представлены результаты исследования рынка российского индустриального программного обеспечения (ПО). Актуальность темы обусловлена значимостью этого сегмента для технологического суверенитета и комплексной цифровизации отраслей промышленности и экономики в целом. Целью исследования являлся сбор и анализ первичных данных, отражающих позиции, приоритеты и оценки компаний‑разработчиков. Для изучения ключевых направлений отечественных разработок индустриального ПО был подготовлен понятийный аппарат, сформирована система показателей и разработан оригинальный инструментарий пилотного обследования. Проведен анализ полученных данных от более чем 60 российских организаций – разработчиков различных классов индустриального ПО. Результаты пилотного обследования показали четкую ориентацию подавляющего большинства разработчиков на внутренний рынок. В качестве ключевых стратегических приоритетов компании выделяют развитие функциональности создаваемых решений и продуктов под специфику российских заказчиков, совершенствование каналов продаж, продвижения и внедрения своих продуктов на внутреннем рынке. По мнению авторов, проведенное исследование имеет значительную научную и прикладную ценность. Полученные результаты не исчерпывают всей проблематики, они формируют теоретико‑методологическую основу для анализа рынка промышленного ПО. Высокая динамика этого рынка, проявляющаяся в появлении новых продуктов, изменении состава игроков и мер государственной поддержки, обуславливает необходимость дальнейших исследований с учетом позиций разработчиков, интеграторов и конечных пользователей.

Intra-BRICS Research Collaboration: Status and Prospects

2025 · CHAPTER · en

The chapter addresses the scale and the effectiveness of international research cooperation of BRICS countries through analysis of key statistics of their publication activities. The special focus is made on the identification of areas of intra-BRICS research collaboration, which have the largest potential for further development. For this purpose, an approach has been proposed that allows for assessing relative intensity of international research collaboration for various thematic areas and identifying the most promising among them in terms of their relative importance. The analysis involves the use of the following three indices: Revealed comparative advantages (RCA), Relative intensity of intra-BRICS collaboration (RIIC) and BRICS partners importance growth (BPIG). Based on the analysis carried out, we identify thematic areas where scientific cooperation between BRICS countries can be strengthened.

The Innovation Competitiveness of BRICS Countries

2025 · BOOK · en

The book is devoted to the assessment of innovation competitiveness of BRICS countries. It covers different aspects of science, technology and innovation in BRICS including status of STI in each country, the intra-BRICS collaboration in the field of STI, prospects of collaboration with BRICS+ countries, as well as a special chapter covering innovation development of BRICS in ICT. The book presents chapters authored by leading experts in STI policy and analysis from BRICS countries. The key questions addressed in the book cover peculiarities of national innovation systems of BRICS countries, their science, technology and innovation policies.

Расширение БРИКС и новые перспективы для научного сотрудничества

2024 · CHAPTER · ru

Setting S&T perspective priorities in an era of complexity and uncertainty: a case for megacities

2024 · ARTICLE · en

Purpose. The purpose of this study is to create a methodological approach for identifying priority areas for science and technology (S&T) development and its empirical application within the city of Moscow. This research uncovers a wide range of multicultural and multidisciplinary global trends that will affect the development of major cities in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including the inherent complexity of urban contexts, demographic and socioeconomic trends, as well as scientific and ecological factors. Design/methodology/approach. The methodological approach is based on classic foresight instruments. Its novelty lays in the blending of qualitative and quantitative methods specially selected as the most appropriate for the identification of S&T areas in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including horizon scanning, bibliometric analysis, expert surveys and the construction of composite indexes with respect to the scope and resources of the research and the selected object for empirical application – Moscow, which is one of the world’s largest megacities. The analysis was performed for the period of 2009–2018 and expert procedures took place in 2019. Findings. As a result, 25 global trends were identified, evaluated and discussed over the course of an expert survey and subsequent expert events. Ten priority areas of S&T development were determined, including 62 technological sub-areas within them and the most important market niches for all identified technological sub-areas, which could be useful for the world’s megacities. The results of this study are illustrated using the construction sector. Based on the conducted research and results, a list of recommendations on S&T policy measures and instruments were suggested, including the creation of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, which by the end of 2023 contained more than 6,000 projects and initiatives, selected using the findings of this investigation. Originality/value. This research contributes to the existing literature and research agenda of setting priorities for S&T development and shows how it can be done for a megacity. The blended foresight methodology that was created within the study satisfies the criteria of scientific originality, is repeatable for any interested researcher, is applicable to any other city in the world and demonstrates its high efficiency in empirical application. It could be used for creating new agenda items in S&T policy, setting S&T priorities for a megacity and integrating the results into decision-making processes. This study provides recommendations on the further implementation of the designed methodology and results into a policymaking system. Moreover, the example of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, which was created based on the results of our research, demonstrates these recommendations’ practical significance in real life, which is quite valuable. The limitation of this study is that it is not devoted to urban planning issues directly or the promotion of R&D areas; it is about setting promising S&T priorities in an era of complexity and uncertainty for megacities.

Стейкхолдеры и их участие в Форсайт-проектах

2024 · ARTICLE · ru

С расширением сферы применения и ростом значимости форсайт-исследований одновременно возрастают роль различных участников соответствующих проектов и пользователей их результатов — стейкхолдеров или заинтересованных сторон. Если ранее значительная часть форсайт-проектов выполнялась с привлечением профессиональных экспертов, то во многих последних исследованиях круг их участников становится более разнообразным, включая представителей общественности и других потенциальных бенефициаров. Такая диверсификация участников позволяет максимально учесть интересы всех сторон и расширить возможности применения исследований без ущерба для их качества (высокая роль экспертов в проектах сохраняется). В статье предлагается систематическая характеристика метода анализа стейкхолдеров, исследуются теория и лучшие практики применения данного подхода, рассматриваются место и роль различных стейкхолдеров в форсайт-проектах, оцениваются основные проблемы, возможности и рекомендации использования метода, в том числе совместно с другими методами Форсайта.

Форсайт: методы и практики

2023 · BOOK · ru

В издании представлен обзор методов, наиболее активно используемых в российских и зарубежных форсайт-проектах в последние годы. Обзор подготовлен с учетом материалов международных организаций и опыта ведущих мировых форсайт-центров, результатов библиометрического анализа публикаций по данной тематике за последние десять лет, а также с опорой на собственный исследовательский и практический опыт Института статистических исследований и экономики знаний Национального исследовательского университета «Высшая школа экономики» (кейсы применения методов в российских проектах представлены в основном работами Института).

From BRICS to BRICS plus: selecting promising areas of S&T Cooperation with developing countries

2021 · ARTICLE · en

BRICS as an association of five major emerging national economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) has been expanding its international cooperation, in particular with developing countries. This process sometimes is referred as building of a BRICS Plus association. Science and technology, being a key driver of economic growth, is one of the most important area of socioeconomic development. It becomes increasingly complicated, requires expensive research infrastructure, skilled workforce, and high-tech laboratory equipment, therefore no one individual country in the world can afford a full-scale support to all areas of research and development. That is why collaboration in this area is considered a very promising activity. Following the BRICS Plus concept proposed by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in 2017, this paper presents one of the first attempts to identify key priorities to be addressed by BRICS in establishing and enhancing S&T cooperation with a number of major developing countries, primarily from Global South. Based on a set of criteria for country selection (population, economic potential, R&D sector capacities; research output; etc.), 21 countries are considered in this paper as a BRICS Plus group. A detailed analysis of publication activities of BRICS Plus countries and their international scientific collaboration based on a wide range of bibliometric indicators was applied for the identification of promising thematic areas for research collaboration between BRICS and BRICS Plus countries. A special analysis is presented for 14 science, technology, and innovation areas, which are regarded as common priorities for BRICS countries.

Science and Technology Priority Areas in BRICS+ Countries

2021 · CHAPTER · en

With the convening of the BRICS summits in China in 2017, in South Africa in 2018 and in Brazil in 2019, the BRICS cooperation mechanism has entered its second decade and been expanded to the “BRICS+” countries. “Partnership for New Industrial Revolution” and “Innovation-driven Development” have become the highlights and focus of BRICS cooperation in the new decade and have attracted much attention. The first BRICS Comprehensive Innovation Competitiveness Report was published in August 2017. Compared to it, the BRICS Comprehensive Innovation Competitiveness Report 2020 has four distinctive features. First, all the 32 level-three indicators in the indicator system for evaluating innovation competitiveness of BRICS countries, such as R&D expenditure, patents and R&D personnel, have been calculated and analyzed. Second, considering the importance of agriculture, three thematic reports on agriculture have been included. Third, the reports on the STI development in the provinces or regions of China and Russia, the efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change through STI in India and new energy development in South Africa have been added to the section of country reports, with the aim to promote BRICS cooperation at the sub-national level and in industrial sectors. Fourth, the 2017 report was mainly written by Chinese experts with the support of Russian experts, while the 2020 report is mainly written by Chinese and Russian experts, with input contributed by experts from Brazil, India, South Africa and other African countries. This report mainly consists of three parts. Part 1 consists of two general reports on “Assessment and Prediction of Innovation Competitiveness, Status Quo and Suggestions for STI Cooperation Among BRICS Countries” and “Science and Technology Priority Areas in BRICS+ Countries”, respectively. They provide an assessment of the “innovation competitiveness” and “comprehensive innovation competitiveness” of BRICS countries and a forecast of the development trend of their “comprehensive innovation competitiveness”. Meanwhile, they review the status and progress of STI cooperation between China and other BRICS countries, and identify the priority areas for STI cooperation among “BRICS+” countries, providing valuable input for policymaking that would accelerate the improvement of their national innovation competitiveness. Part 2 consists of country reports and thematic reports. The country reports assess and analyze the innovation competitiveness of the BRICS countries and examine STI cooperation within the BRICS framework. The thematic reports provide in-depth analysis of current situation and challenges of relevant countries in agriculture areas. Part 3 is annexes, including a collection of relevant documents concerning BRICS STI cooperation framework.