Федюнина Анна Андреевна

Export productivity premia in GVCs, partner productivity advantage, and technology intensity. Evidence from Kazakhstan as a central Asian connecting country

2025 в печати · CHAPTER · en

Global Imperative, Local Realities: Unveiling Drivers of Industrial Robotization in Russian Manufacturing

2025 · ARTICLE · en

The urgent imperative for policymakers globally is the widespread adoption of industrial robots, yet a consensus on the critical factors driving this adoption remains elusive. This paper investigates the determinants of robotization in manufacturing, uniquely examining both conventional and artificial intelligence–based (AI-based) robots. We emphasize the role of foreign direct investments (FDIs) and the state as key stakeholders in the robotization process. Specifically, we assess state ownership, government financial and organizational support, and public procurement. Our database is derived from a survey of 1716 manufacturing firms in Russia, and our empirical analysis employs probit and multinomial logit techniques. For the first time in the empirical literature, we demonstrate that conventional and AI-based robotization are characteristic of different enterprises. We find that state-owned and foreign-owned firms are more likely to use conventional robots. In contrast, AI-based robotization is prevalent among firms receiving public orders and financial support, whereas organizational support is more common among firms with conventional robotization. Our findings have significant policy implications, highlighting the importance of FDI and the state’s role through various instruments—ownership participation, financial support, and demand provision via state procurement—in advancing robotization in countries lagging in this domain. A key limitation of our study is the focus on correlations rather than causal relationships, as well as the use of data from 2018, before the shocks of the pandemic and extensive sanctions, which may have altered the drivers of robotization. Nonetheless, our results broaden the understanding of robotization determinants across different economic contexts and underscore the differences in determinants for conventional versus AI-based robots.

The Impact of Regional Integration in GVCs on Subsidy Allocation Among Manufacturing Firms in Russia

2024 · ARTICLE · en

While global demand for industrial policy-making continues to rise, increasing attention is being given to how these policies are shaped by participation in global value chains (GVCs), both in developed and developing countries. However, much of the research overlooks the regional dimension of support allocation, particularly the integration of regional economies into GVCs. This study aims to address this gap by examining the factors influencing state support at the regional level, with a focus on backward and forward linkages within GVCs in the manufacturing sector. The analysis is based on a survey of 1,900 Russian manufacturing firms conducted between August and November 2022, using data from 2019 to 2022 across various sectors and firm sizes. The findings show that Russian regional governments generally adopt conservative strategies when allocating financial support, focusing on a core group of companies crucial for maintaining regional economic stability. This support is primarily directed at exporters and firms fulfilling government contracts, with state-affiliated companies becoming the primary beneficiaries due to shifts in external conditions. Additionally, regions with greater integration into the global economy tend to adopt a more vertical policy approach, favoring large, GVC-integrated firms, while less integrated regions prioritize smaller firms, especially SMEs. Regions with stronger downstream linkages focus on supporting innovation-active firms to advance localization, import substitution, and technological independence goals. These findings highlight emerging priorities in Russia’s industrial policy, suggesting that regional initiatives are needed to strategically reposition the country’s regional economies in the global landscape amidst changing global dynamics.

The U-shaped relationship between low carbon goods trade and emission reductions: insights from Russian regions

2024 · ARTICLE · en

Relevance. The global imperative for adopting a low-carbon economy resonates worldwide, yet comprehensive assessments specific to the Russian economy remain scant. This is especially important considering the significant differences in the level of transition to sustainable development among Russian regions. Research Objective. This study aims to introduce a robust methodology for evaluating and analyzing the international trade of low-carbon goods (LCGs) across various Russian regions and assessing its effects on fuel combustion emissions. Data and Methods. Data on LCGs trade were obtained from the Federal Customs Service of Russia. In conjunction, datasets from Rosstat and the Central Bank of Russia were incorporated for comprehensive econometric modeling. The analytical framework employed Tobit and quantile regressions. Results. The study uncovers significant disparities among Russian regions regarding the intensity of low-carbon goods exports and imports. This variation highlights the diverse competencies in LCGs production, as well as differing ecological agendas and consumption patterns across regions. Additionally, the research demonstrates that, although the widespread adoption of advanced production technologies is positively correlated with increased fuel combustion emissions, a U-shaped relationship exists where higher LCGs exports are associated with reductions in fuel combustion emissions across Russian regions to a certain degree. Conclusions. This research highlights important implications for both federal and regional industrial and environmental policies. It advocates for the development of targeted incentives that encourage the adoption of low-carbon goods (LCGs) and advanced technologies. By doing so, policymakers can effectively promote sustainable development tailored to the unique needs and conditions of various regions, thereby fostering ecological resilience and economic growth across diverse regional landscapes.

Рынок промышленной робототехники в России под санкциями: в поиске драйверов спроса и предложения

2024 · ARTICLE · ru

В результате введения против российской экономики жестких санкционных ограничительных мер ряд российских высокотехнологичных рынков столкнулся с серьезными вызовами. Один из них - российский рынок промышленной робототехники, с которого ушли ведущие иностранные игроки, при этом импорт из ряда стран-мировых лидеров по производству роботов оказался под запретом. Ситуация осложняется тем, что хотя в России производство роботов существует еще с советских времен, оно по-прежнему носит развивающийся, неокрепший характер. Все это определяет проблематику настоящей статьи, направленной на обсуждение потенциальных драйверов роста отечественного рынка робототехники и условий, при которых эти драйверы смогут реализоваться. Показано, что при относительно небольшом размере российский рынок робототехники до наступления серьезных санкционных ограничений в 2016-2021 годах рос относительно быстро, опережающие темпы роста спроса на промышленных роботов наблюдались у предприятий химической промышленности, производстве электроники и автомобилестроении. При небольшой емкости структура рынка находилась в серьезной зависимости от присутствия всего нескольких иностранных производителей. На ряду с существенными проблемами показано, что санкционный удар оказал и оздоравливающий эффект – есть признаки диверсификации игроков в 2022 году. Среди потенциальных драйверов рынка отмечены потенциальные драйверы рынка, среди которых со стороны предложения выделен вход новых иностранных производителей и заполнение опустевших ниш отечественными предприятиями. Для реализации драйверов отмечается важность предсказуемой политики и создания условий для промышленных предприятий по автоматизации производств вместе с поддержкой развития человеческого капитала в отрасли производства робототехники.

Import Substitutions and the Western Sanctions in the Russian Economy: The Strike of 2014 and the Prospects After 2022

2024 · CHAPTER · en

In this chapter, we consider the impact of the 2014 Western sanctions on structural changes and import substitution in the Russian economy. Import substitution policy has been strengthened in Russia since the mid 2000s, but the sanctions have significantly affected its nature and focus, contributed to divergent results in different industries. We start with the introduction of long-term trends affecting the development and technological upgrade of Russian industries and show that the Western sanctions of 2014 have not changed them much. However, the sanctions and the resulting change in Russia’s geopolitical relations have led to significant shifts in the Russian economy. In particular, we show that after 2014 we observe structural changes in intra-industry imports, import re-orientation from the West to the East, development of new export competitive advantages in import substitution sectors. We show that the results of import substitution in Russian industries are ambiguous and that positive evidence might be find out in agriculture and the food industry. We demonstrate the existence of different trajectories in the development of industries under sanctions in the "use of imports/technological dependence" space. This allows us to discuss the following factors moderating the impact of the Western sanctions: (1) distance to the technological frontier (2) the nature of industry organization (horizontal vs. vertical), (3) the presence of entrepreneurial initiative and (4) the character of industrial policy. Given that the 2022 sanctions have exacerbated the accumulated problems in the Russian economy, we conclude by discussing the challenges of Russian import substitution after 2022.

Пандемия, санкции и беспокойство в регионах России: наукастинг ожиданий деловой активности

2024 · ARTICLE · ru

В настоящем исследовании разработана методика наукастинга индекса деловых ожиданий, протестированная на данных по российской экономике в целом и ее субъектам. Методика отличается от существующих подходов тем, что предлагает подход к определению набора поисковых образов для наукастинга на основе байесовского усреднения и решает вопрос агрегирования временных рядов по отдельным запросам. Построенные индексы смогли продемонстрировать достаточно высокую степень адекватности и как инструмент отражения шоковых событий в экономической и политической жизни страны, и в качестве предиктора колебаний опросных индексов ожиданий. Применение методики позволило выявить факторы, влияющие на волатильность индексов деловых ожиданий в зависимости от уровня развития и отраслевой специализации субъектов РФ. В частности, выявлено, что финансово-экономические центры высокоразвитых регионов и развитые регионы с диверсифицированной экономикой демонстрируют высокую волатильность, тогда как индексы ожиданий бизнеса в менее развитых аграрных и сырьевых регионах демонстрируют низкую волатильность. Эти результаты могут быть полезны для принятия решений в области экономической политики и представляют интерес для исследователей, занимающихся вопросами экономической стабильности и прогнозирования.

How the adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies is related to participation in global and domestic value chains: Evidence from Russia

2024 · ARTICLE · en

This study explores the relationships among Industry 4.0 technologies, their application areas, and the involvement of Russian manufacturing firms in global and domestic value chains (GVCs and DVCs). Using an original survey dataset of approximately 1,700 Russian manufacturing firms, we apply logit and multinomial logit regressions. We make a novel contribution to the literature by uncovering an asymmetry in the adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies among Russian industrial firms in Domestic Value Chains (DVCs) and Global Value Chains (GVCs). This asymmetry has the potential to impede GVC localization and DVC internationalization. Based on our results, software automation solutions are the only ones demonstrating statistical significance for firms participating in GVCs, DVCs, and both GVCs and DVCs simultaneously. Companies in DVCs demonstrate a broader utilization of Industry 4.0 technologies across various application areas. We also identify evidence of reshoring in DVCs, indicating that Industry 4.0 adoption encourages firms to establish enduring relationships with domestic suppliers. Highlighting that differences in technology adoption are influenced by external factors, including adherence to international standards and regulatory principles, we propose policy implications for developing countries. Recommendations encompass reducing entry barriers to DVCs, improving procurement transparency, and promoting competition in the digital solutions market to empower firms for seamless GVC integration.

Servitization and firm productivity premium across the product value chain: Evidence from Russian manufacturing firms

2024 · ARTICLE · en

Purpose – This paper aims to discuss firm productivity premium for servitized firms. It discusses servitization across the product value chain and estimates the effects of servitization, its intensity and the range of services on productivity premium in manufacturing firms. Design/methodology/approach – This paper develops a conceptual framework and tests the hypotheses on the effects of servitization on productivity premium using linear regression models with a sample of 20,837 Russian manufacturing firms gathered from the Ruslana Bureau Van Dijk database and the Russian customs service. Findings – Servitized firms exhibit higher total factor productivity and labor productivity. The labor productivity premium increases with the number of services offered. However, the impact of services on productivity varies along the product value chain: post-manufacturing and post-sales services enhance productivity premium, while manufacturing and back-office services diminish them. The effect of establishment services remains ambiguous. Practical implications – This paper offers an analytical framework for firms to assess their servitization strategies. These strategies should be gradual, focused on enhancing firm efficiency rather than being an end goal. Firms should initiate the process by introducing services at the post-production and post-sales stages of the product creation chain to achieve productivity premium. Originality/value – The paper extends the evidence on firm-level productivity drivers and contributes to the servitization theory. A servitization strategy should be portfolio-based, considering both the potential gains and losses in productivity resulting from the implementation of specific services.

Формирование и управление цепочками создания стоимости в угольной отрасли на основе перспективных технологий

2024 · ARTICLE · ru

Статья посвящена поиску новых инструментов организации и управления отечественной угольной отраслью в условиях современных внешних и внутренних вызовов, возникших в связи с расширением повестки энергоперехода и усилением глобального санкционного давления на российскую экономику. Новизна подхода состоит в том, что авторы обосновывают необходимость и возможность преодоления барьеров развития отрасли с помощью технологической интеграции и кооперации угольных компаний и компаний из смежных отраслей в рамках цепочек создания стоимости (ЦСС) на основе перспективных производственных и цифровых технологий. В первом разделе статьи раскрываются современные подходы к изучению ЦСС и роль технологий в обеспечении гибкости и устойчивости ЦСС к внешним шокам (стрессоустойчивости). Второй посвящен особенностям ЦСС в угольной отрасли, показаны типичные ЦСС, выявлены оценены основные риски и барьеры на пути диверсификации производства и дифференциации продукции в угольной отрасли. В третьем разделе выявлены технологии, которые способны создать устойчивую для трансформации ЦСС на основе диверсификации производства и дифференциация продукта. Четвертый раздел завершается анализом практического опыта – кейса, описывающего создание инструмента организации и управления ЦСС в угольной отрасли: «Информационно-технологической платформы пилотного производства «премиальных» угольных смесей». Статья завершается выводами и предложениями для дальнейших научных исследований и практических экспериментов.