Проскурякова Лилиана Николаевна

The role of resource scarcity in shaping the green energy mix in the largest rare-earth metal trading nations

2026 · ARTICLE · en

The global demand for rare earth metals (REM) has exceeded the global supply, exacerbating the deficit of these resources for wind turbines, solar panels, electric vehicles, and nuclear reactors. The largest REM exporting and importing countries have the power to influence energy transition in their own countries and around the world. This study analyzes the impact of economic growth, financial development, institutional quality, natural resource depletion, and carbon dioxide emissions on the Green Quality of Energy Mix Index (GREENQ) in the 14 largest REM traders in the time period from 2000 to 2021. The impact of variables was assessed with a fully modified ordinary least squares method, and the trade flows were illustrated by the network analysis that showed key REM trade nodes. The results highlight that depletion of natural resources positively affects energy transition in the long term, emphasizing the critical link between resource scarcity and the uptake of renewables. Improved institutions were found to make a positive impact on the green energy mix, while increased carbon dioxide emissions are negatively associated with GREENQ. The study outcomes contribute to the evidence base on energy transition, including resource limitations and REM trade flows.

New energy-rich or still energy-poor? Evidence from selected African countries

2025 · ARTICLE · en

Traditional bioenergy, used in many African nations, is not recognized as a renewable or sustainable energy source. Some countries on the continent are officially leading the way in achieving SDG7, thanks to this type of energy. As of 2020, some African nations had a relatively high proportion of renewable energy (RE) in their primary energy supply, contributing to their enhanced energy self-sufficiency. In this study, 15 low- and lower-middle-income African countries are selected, and the elements that statistically significantly affect high shares of RE supply from 2000 to 2022 are scrutinized. For this purpose, second-generation panel data methods, CS-ARDL, are used to assess the effects of sustainability, economic growth, and energy equity indicators on the share of renewables in primary energy supply. The study shows that in the short term, RE supply is significantly but adversely affected by the total primary energy use. Energy intensity and access to renewable fuels contribute to an increased supply of RE. Moreover, RE supply experiences a strong and favourable influence from both economic expansion and lower interest rates. This study contributes to the body of knowledge on renewable-based energy systems in African countries by underlining the impact of interest rates and other factors that influence RE share in the entire primary energy supply, going beyond the power sector. The findings could serve as an evidence base for decision-makers in drafting evidence-based investment, sustainable development, and development assistance strategies.

Modeling Hybrid Renewable Microgrids in Remote Northern Regions: A Comparative Simulation Study

2025 · ARTICLE · en

Remote northern regions face unique energy challenges due to geographic isolation, harsh climates, and limited access to centralized power grids. In response to growing environmental and economic pressures, there is a rising interest in hybrid energy systems that integrate renewable and conventional sources. This study investigates sustainable and cost-effective energy supply strategies for off-grid northern communities through the modeling and simulation of multi-energy microgrids. Focusing on case studies from Yakutia (Russia), Hordaland (Norway), and Alaska (United States), the research employs a comprehensive methodology that combines a critical literature review, system design using HOMER Pro software (version 3.16.2), and a comparative analysis of simulation outcomes. Three distinct microgrid configurations are proposed, incorporating various combinations of solar photovoltaic (PV), wind energy, diesel generators, and battery storage systems. The findings reveal that integrating solar PV significantly enhances economic efficiency, particularly in regions with high solar irradiance, underscoring its pivotal role in shaping resilient, sustainable energy systems for remote northern areas. This study is innovative in its cross-regional comparative approach, linking techno-economic simulation with climatic variability analysis to identify context-specific energy strategies. The key findings highlight how hybrid microgrids combining PV, wind, and storage systems can reduce both costs and emissions by up to 35% compared to diesel-only systems, offering practical pathways toward sustainable electrification in high-latitude regions.

The critical minerals dilemma: Rethinking energy transition strategies in Africa

2025 · ARTICLE · en

Energy transition relies heavily on critical minerals that play a crucial role in accelerating low-carbon development by influencing the viability and accessibility of green technologies. Many more minerals are also essential for industrialization, which is taking place or projected in most developing countries in Africa. This study focuses on countries with the largest mineral deposits in the region; for instance, South Africa is the leading producer of iridium, while Gabon and Mozambique extract substantial volumes of graphite and manganese. Using a cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) approach, we examine how the mineral import demand of 21 African countries responds to growing renewable energy (RE) consumption, as well as changes in energy efficiency and CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2023. This study provides the first cross-country CS-ARDL assessment of mineral trade responses to clean-energy drivers across African economies. The empirical findings indicate that, over the long term, RE expansion shows a positive association with mineral imports in African countries rich in these resources. Conversely, foreign direct investment (FDI) and gross domestic product (GDP) exhibit negative associations with import volumes. FDI also appears to reduce mineral exports in the long run, suggesting that investors increasingly prioritize domestic manufacturing over raw commodity exports. Additionally, RE consumption is associated with reduced mineral exports, while enhancing energy efficiency in the short term. These findings provide new regional insights into Africa's evolving mineral supply chains, highlighting the continent's complex role in global energy transition pathways and its need for resilient and inclusive mineral strategies.

Future of Energy Consumption and Forecasting

2024 · CHAPTER · en

The chapter outlines future trends in energy consumption and future avenues of energy forecasting. Energy consumers are playing an increasingly important role in shaping energy systems that will depend on the development of a vast range energy issues. The list of these issues is presented along with an outlook of energy consumption by region, by country, and by fuel. Most energy forecasts suggest several alternative futures that are described in the form of scenarios. Other methods and approaches are also described, including statistical analysis, econometric and mathematical tools, and big data analysis. Of all methods, special attention is devoted to energy modelling and energy foresight.

Исследования будущего для долгосрочного развития ТЭК

2024 · BOOK · ru

В докладе анализируются различные подходы и методы исследований будущего, применяемые для изучения топливно-энергического комплекса (ТЭК) в целом и отдельных энергетических технологий. Рассматриваются междисциплинарные инструменты анализа, позволяющие расширить временной горизонт и проанализировать взаимное влияние ТЭК, других отраслей экономики и сфер социально-экономического развития: сценарный анализ, экономико-математическое моделирование, экспертные методы и другие. Анализируются подходы к формированию долгосрочных прогнозов развития ТЭК, повышению энергетической справедливости, и влиянию энергетических технологий на человеческое развитие. В докладе предложены рекомендации по повышению эффективности прогнозных исследований, результаты которых могут быть использованы с целью планирования научно-технологического развития ТЭК.

The Contribution of Energy Policies to Green Energy Transition in the Asia-Pacific Region

2024 · ARTICLE · en

The Asia–Pacific (APAC) region accounts for the largest part of the global greenhouse gas emissions and roughly half of the world's energy demand. This means that the success of APAC countries, including China and India, in switching to clean energy sources is crucial for meeting the global emission targets. To achieve the Paris Agreement goals, it is essential that large economies strengthen their efforts in reducing carbon emissions. Since 2020, many countries in the region have already seen record-breaking growth of renewable energy installed capacity and use. This study aims to analyse the role of energy policy instruments (including feed-in tariffs, quotas, tenders, and tax incentives) for green energy transition in 16 Asia-Pacific economies. A fixed-effect model for panel data estimation approach was applied with data spanning from 2000 to 2021. The findings show that renewable energy policy instruments are vital for green energy transition in the region. More specifically, feed-in tariffs, quotas, and tenders play an important role in green energy transition, but tax incentives are not. The findings may be used by Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation coordination bodies in preparing recommendations and policy advice to member governments to ensure green energy transition at the regional level.

Expanding foresight methodology to better understand the unknown future and identify hard-to-predict events

2024 · ARTICLE · en

This study focuses on the integration of methods from different theories and research concepts into futures studies in order to better understand the obscure future through the identification of unpredictable and hard-to-predict rare events and factors. Particular emphasis in this study is placed on systems theory, cybernetics, synergetics, theory of chaos, bifurcation theory, catastrophe theory, thermodynamics, and the theory of self-organized criticality that could elucidate the unknown and offer new insights to futures studies. White, black and grey swans, dragon kings, wild cards, and weak signals are rare and high-impact events commonly referred to in the risk management literature, synergetics, and futures studies. The academic literature does not always accurately identify commonalities and differences between them, as well as relevant research tools. This study clarifies the categories of unknown and types of uncertainty associated with these events, their characteristics, and the related existing foresight methods. It is also suggested to enrich foresight methodology by adding instruments from other disciplines.

Policy and economic effects of greenhouse gases emissions

2024 · CHAPTER · en

Empirical analysis of the Russian power industry's transition to sustainability

2023 · ARTICLE · en

Solutions to sustainability challenges often focus on low-carbon energy transition. This paper highlights the Russian electric power industry's barriers to and drivers for achieving zero emissions by 2060. The methods used include policy analysis and an econometric analysis of variables that affect and are affected by per capita electricity consumption in 1990–2021. The results show that while renewables lower overall electricity use, economic growth, financial development, and CO2 emissions increase use. A bidirectional causality exists from trade openness and CO2 emissions to electricity consumption. A sustainable energy transition framework is proposed based on consolidating selected policy tools.