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Власов Василий Викторович

Факультет социальных наук

Профиль на hse.ru ↗ тел.: +7 (495) 772-95-90 | 2413
Публикаций
199
Языков
1
Наград
10
Конференций
4
Профиль Публикации (199) Курсы (10)

Профессиональные интересы

эпидемиологиядоказательная медицинаобщественное здоровьеБиомедицинская этика

Должности

  • Профессор — Факультет социальных наук, Департамент политики и управления, Кафедра управления и экономики здравоохранения

Био

  • · Начал работать в НИУ ВШЭ в 2009 году.
  • · Научно-педагогический стаж: 46 лет.

Образование

  • 1994 · Ученое звание: Профессор
  • 1993 · Доктор медицинских наук: специальность 14.01.04 «Внутренние болезни»
  • 1976 · Специалитет: Военно-медицинская академия им. С.М. Кирова, специальность «Лечебно-профилактическое дело», квалификация «Военный врач»

Опыт работы

  • · Профессор Сеченовского университета
  • · Ведущий научный сотрудник Центра профилактической медицины
  • · Профессор МФТИ
  • · Профессор Саратовского медицинского университета

Награды и поощрения

  • · Благодарность НИУ ВШЭ (март 2024)
  • · Благодарность факультета социальных наук НИУ ВШЭ (февраль 2024)
  • · Благодарность факультета социальных наук НИУ ВШЭ (январь 2023)
  • · Почетная грамота Высшей школы экономики (декабрь 2022)
  • · Благодарность Высшей школы экономики (сентябрь 2020)
  • · Почетный знак II степени Высшей школы экономики (июнь 2018)
  • · Надбавка за публикацию в журнале из Списка А (и приравненном к нему научном издании) (2025–2026, 2024–2025, 2023–2024)
  • · Надбавка за публикацию в международном рецензируемом научном издании (2022–2023, 2021–2022, 2020–2022, 2018–2020, 2017–2019)
  • · Надбавка за статью в зарубежном рецензируемом журнале (2015–2017)
  • · Лучший преподаватель — 2024–2025, 2017–2021, 2015

Конференции (4)

Показать все
  • · 2015: Съезд фтизиатров России (Воронеж). Доклад: Современная концепция доказательной медицины
  • · 2015: Лженаука в современном мире: медиасфера, высшее образование, школа (Санкт Петербург). Доклад: Лженаука на марше: на пути к гибели научных журналов
  • · 2014: Успехи и проблемы продвижения доказательной медицины (Москва). Доклад: Успехи и проблемы продвижения доказательной медицины в 2013 г.
  • · 2014: Этические и правовые аспекты нежелательных исходов медицинской помощи (Москва). Доклад: Этические и правовые аспекты нежелательных исходов медицинской помощи

Идентификаторы исследователя

Публикации (199)

Association of Drugs for Sale on the Internet and Official Health Indicators: Darknet Parsing and Correlational Study

2024 · ARTICLE · en

Background:Studying illicit drug circulation and its effects on population health is complicated due to the criminalization of trade and consumption. Illicit drug markets have evolved with IT, moving digital to the “darknet.” Previous research has analyzed darknet market listings and customer reviews. Research tools include public health surveys and medical reports but lack neutral data on drugs' spread and impact. This study fills this gap with an analysis of the volume of drugs traded on the darknet market. Objective:We aimed to use the dark web data and officially published indicators to identify the most vulnerable regions of Russia and the correlations between the pairs of variables to measure how illicit drug trade can affect population well-being. Methods:We web-parsed the Hydra darknet drug marketplace using Python code. The dataset encompassed 3045 individual sellers marketing 6721 unique products via 58,563 distinct postings, each representing specific quantities sold in different Russian regions during 2019. In the second stage, we collected 31 variables from official sources to compare officially collected data with darknet data about amounts and types of selling drugs in every 85 regions of Russia. The health-related data were obtained from official published sources—statistical yearbooks. Maps, diagrams, correlation matrixes, and applied observational statistical methods were used. Results:In 2019, a minimum of 124 kilograms of drugs circulated daily in small batches on the Russian darknet. Cannabis dominated the market, being 10 times more prevalent than opiates, and cannabis products' higher availability in the region is correlated with a lower incidence of opiate overdoses. The “grams of opiates in the region” variable is significantly correlated with drug overdose deaths (r=.41; P=.003), HIV-positive cases due to drug use (r=.51; P=.002), and drug court convictions in Russia (r=.39; P=.004). The study identified significant correlations between opiate sales on the darknet and higher rates of HIV among injection drug users (r=.47; P=.003). Conversely, regions with higher cannabis sales exhibited significant negative correlations with indicators of harmful drug use (r=–.52; P=.002) and its prevalence (r=–.49; P=.001). These findings suggest regional variations in drug sales on the darknet may be associated with differing public health outcomes. These indicators accurately reflect regional drug issues, though some official statistics may be incomplete or biased. Conclusions:Our findings point to varying levels of risk associated with different types of drugs sold on the darknet, but further research is needed to explore these relationships in greater depth. The study's findings highlight the importance of considering regional variations in darknet drug sales when developing public health strategies. The significant correlations between drug sales data and public health indicators suggest that region-specific interventions could be more effective in addressing the diverse challenges posed by illicit drug use.

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Global investments in pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: development assistance and domestic spending on health between 1990 and 2026

2023 · ARTICLE · en

Background The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted gaps in health surveillance systems, disease prevention, and treatment globally. Among the many factors that might have led to these gaps is the issue of the financing of national health systems, especially in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), as well as a robust global system for pandemic preparedness. We aimed to provide a comparative assessment of global health spending at the onset of the pandemic; characterise the amount of development assistance for pandemic preparedness and response disbursed in the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic; and examine expectations for future health spending and put into context the expected need for investment in pandemic preparedness. Methods In this analysis of global health spending between 1990 and 2021, and prediction from 2021 to 2026, we estimated four sources of health spending: development assistance for health (DAH), government spending, out-of-pocket spending, and prepaid private spending across 204 countries and territories. We used the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)'s Creditor Reporting System (CRS) and the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database (GHED) to estimate spending. We estimated development assistance for general health, COVID-19 response, and pandemic preparedness and response using a keyword search. Health spending estimates were combined with estimates of resources needed for pandemic prevention and preparedness to analyse future health spending patterns, relative to need. Findings In 2019, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, US$9·2 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·1–9·3) was spent on health worldwide. We found great disparities in the amount of resources devoted to health, with high-income countries spending $7·3 trillion (95% UI 7·2–7·4) in 2019; 293·7 times the $24·8 billion (95% UI 24·3–25·3) spent by low-income countries in 2019. That same year, $43·1 billion in development assistance was provided to maintain or improve health. The pandemic led to an unprecedented increase in development assistance targeted towards health; in 2020 and 2021, $1·8 billion in DAH contributions was provided towards pandemic preparedness in LMICs, and $37·8 billion was provided for the health-related COVID-19 response. Although the support for pandemic preparedness is 12·2% of the recommended target by the High-Level Independent Panel (HLIP), the support provided for the health-related COVID-19 response is 252·2% of the recommended target. Additionally, projected spending estimates suggest that between 2022 and 2026, governments in 17 (95% UI 11–21) of the 137 LMICs will observe an increase in national government health spending equivalent to an addition of 1% of GDP, as recommended by the HLIP. Interpretation There was an unprecedented scale-up in DAH in 2020 and 2021. We have a unique opportunity at this time to sustain funding for crucial global health functions, including pandemic preparedness. However, historical patterns of underfunding of pandemic preparedness suggest that deliberate effort must be made to ensure funding is maintained.

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Global, regional, and national burden of low back pain, 1990–2020, its attributable risk factors, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

2023 · ARTICLE · en

Background Low back pain is highly prevalent and the main cause of years lived with disability (YLDs). We present the most up-to-date global, regional, and national data on prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. Methods Population-based studies from 1980 to 2019 identified in a systematic review, international surveys, US medical claims data, and dataset contributions by collaborators were used to estimate the prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from 1990 to 2020, for 204 countries and territories. Low back pain was defined as pain between the 12th ribs and the gluteal folds that lasted a day or more; input data using alternative definitions were adjusted in a network meta-regression analysis. Nested Bayesian meta-regression models were used to estimate prevalence and YLDs by age, sex, year, and location. Prevalence was projected to 2050 by running a regression on prevalence rates using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying them by projected population estimates. Findings In 2020, low back pain affected 619 million (95% uncertainty interval 554–694) people globally, with a projection of 843 million (759–933) prevalent cases by 2050. In 2020, the global age-standardised rate of YLDs was 832 per 100 000 (578–1070). Between 1990 and 2020, age-standardised rates of prevalence and YLDs decreased by 10·4% (10·9–10·0) and 10·5% (11·1–10·0), respectively. A total of 38·8% (28·7–47·0) of YLDs were attributed to occupational factors, smoking, and high BMI. Interpretation Low back pain remains the leading cause of YLDs globally, and in 2020, there were more than half a billion prevalent cases of low back pain worldwide. While age-standardised rates have decreased modestly over the past three decades, it is projected that globally in 2050, more than 800 million people will have low back pain. Challenges persist in obtaining primary country-level data on low back pain, and there is an urgent need for more high-quality, primary, country-level data on both prevalence and severity distributions to improve accuracy and monitor change.

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Транспарентность системы здравоохранения: состояние, ограничения, перспективы

2023 · PREPRINT · ru

Под транспарентностью в здравоохранении понимается прозрачность (открытость, доступность) информации об условиях оказания медицинской помощи для населения, правилах распределения ресурсов в системе здравоохранения, результатах деятельности медицинских организаций, органов управления здравоохранением, страховщиков. В работе представлен анализ специфики и ограничений транспарентности в здравоохранении, ее роли в обеспечении эффективности системы здравоохранения. Обсуждаются ограничения транспарентности в российской системе здравоохранения, в том числе транспарентности условий оказания медицинской помощи, правил распределения ресурсов, результатов работы медицинских организаций. Представлены полученные методом фокус-групповых дискуссий новые эмпирические данные об отношении врачей и представителей пациентских сообществ к усилению прозрачности работы медицинских организаций. Проанализированы возможности усиления транспарентности применительно к конкретным параметрам функционирования системы здравоохранения. На основе результатов выполненного исследования сформулированы рекомендации для государственной политики.

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Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

2023 · ARTICLE · en

Background The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019. Methods We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. Findings In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of −0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = −0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = −0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = −0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = −0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = −0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR. Interpretation The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

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The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

2022 · ARTICLE · en

Background: In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods: Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings: There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5-65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8-57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9-15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6-14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9-25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9-3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4-98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation: Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts.

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Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

2022 · ARTICLE · en

Importance: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden. Objective: To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019. Evidence review: The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Findings: In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. Conclusions and relevance: The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

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Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

2022 · ARTICLE · en

Background Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. Methods We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. Findings We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4–65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8–175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [–7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64–1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52–1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41–67]) and western Europe (74% [58–90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329–403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323–395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. Interpretation Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia.

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Global, Regional, and National Burden of Diseases and Injuries for Adults 70 Years and Older: Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

2022 · ARTICLE · en

Objectives To use data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) to estimate mortality and disability trends for the population aged ≥70 and evaluate patterns in causes of death, disability, and risk factors.Design Systematic analysis.Setting Participants were aged ≥70 from 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019.Main outcomes measures Years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability adjusted life years, life expectancy at age 70 (LE-70), healthy life expectancy at age 70 (HALE-70), proportion of years in ill health at age 70 (PYIH-70), risk factors, and data coverage index were estimated based on standardised GBD methods.Results Globally the population of older adults has increased since 1990 and all cause death rates have decreased for men and women. However, mortality rates due to falls increased between 1990 and 2019. The probability of death among people aged 70-90 decreased, mainly because of reductions in non-communicable diseases. Globally disability burden was largely driven by functional decline, vision and hearing loss, and symptoms of pain. LE-70 and HALE-70 showed continuous increases since 1990 globally, with certain regional disparities. Globally higher LE-70 resulted in higher HALE-70 and slightly increased PYIH-70. Sociodemographic and healthcare access and quality indices were positively correlated with HALE-70 and LE-70. For high exposure risk factors, data coverage was moderate, while limited data were available for various dietary, environmental or occupational, and metabolic risks.Conclusions Life expectancy at age 70 has continued to rise globally, mostly because of decreases in chronic diseases. Adults aged ≥70 living in high income countries and regions with better healthcare access and quality were found to experience the highest life expectancy and healthy life expectancy. Disability burden, however, remained constant, suggesting the need to enhance public health and intervention programmes to improve wellbeing among older adults.Data of the GBD study are publicly available at https://www.healthdata.org/results/data-visualizations.

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First population norms for the EQ-5D-3L in the Russian Federation

2022 · ARTICLE · en

Purpose The EQ–5D survey instrument is routinely applied to general and patient specific populations in many countries, as a means of measuring Health Related Quality of Life (HRQOL) and/or informing Health Technology Assessment. The instrument is the subject of growing interest in the Russian Federation, as too is Health Technology Assessment. This research is the first to systematically present the EQ–5D–3L nationally representative population norms and to examine the socioeconomic and socio-demographic characteristics of the instrument among a representative sample of the Russian population. Methods Based on a nationally representative health and well-being survey of the Russian population, conducted in November 2017, we establish the descriptive results, including the EQ-VAS and the EQ-5D Index, by age and gender, examine the correspondence between the EQ–5D health classifications and the separate EQ-VAS scores, and draw on a set of augmented logistic regressions to evaluate the association between the presence of problems in each dimension and various socio-economic and health-related characteristics. Results We find strong evidence that the EQ-5D instrument is sensitive to underlying observed and latent health experiences, that it mirrors many of the characteristics familiar from other settings but that there are Russian specificities which merit further research, particularly with respect to the anxiety/depression dimension of the instrument. Conclusion This research represents an important landmark for HRQOL studies in Russia as well as for the prospects of continuing to develop the scholarly and practical infrastructure necessary for Russian Health Technology Assessment to advance.

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Курсы (10)