Гаева Дара Владимировна

Four Decades of Climate Change (1981–2020) in the South-Eastern Baltic Region: trends and spatial patterns of air temperature and precipitation extremes

2026 · ARTICLE · en

The objective of the paper was the spatio-temporal analysis of the dynamics of extreme climate indices for the south-eastern coast of the Baltic Sea over the 40-year period 1981–2020, employing 10 extreme indices proposed by Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), characterizing hazardous phenomena as: extremely high temperatures, heat waves and intense precipitation, and utilising climate data recorded at 9 meteorological coastal and inland stations. Extreme temperature indices were calculated using the ClimPACT software package, and trends were identified using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. The analysis showed a significant increase in warm temperature extremes across most stations, including summer days (SU), warm days (TX90p), and heatwave frequency (HWF) and duration (HWD) in the region. At the same time, the number of frost days (FD0) showed a significant decreasing trend at all stations, reflecting a general warming tendency. Precipitation-related indices showed weaker and more mixed trends. At the coastal station Baltiysk, number of very heavy rain days (R10mm) and total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT) showed significant decreases. In contrast, both number of very heavy rain days (R10mm) and (R20mm) increased at the south-western station Chojnice, while very heavy rain days (R20mm) also increased at the inland station Zheleznodorozhnyy in the central part of the region. Consecutive wet days (CWD) showed no significant changes. Pearson correlation analysis was used to quantitatively assess the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns — the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Scandinavia Pattern (SCAND), and sea surface temperature (SST). It has been shown that the AO (Arctic Oscillation) and sea surface temperature (SST) are closely associated with the interannual variability of temperature indices.

Urban ecosystem services research in Russia: Systematic review on the state of the art

2025 · ARTICLE · en

Research on urban ecosystem services (ES) covers many regions globally, yet significant gaps remain in several areas, including Russia. Furthermore, the number of publications on Russian ES is still very low, and most of them focus on ES assessment on the national level which results in an incomplete understanding of ES provision in Russian cities. To fill this gap, 197 publications on urban ES have been systematically reviewed. Those mostly included research on urban ES in Russia as well as in other cities of the world that represented case studies within international collaborations of Russian scientists with other partners. The paper presents the main aspects of the ES concept adoption and operationalizing in the Russian scientific discourse, by providing an overview of the current research on the relationships between humans and urban ecosystems. Spatially, the majority of studies focused on large cities; herewith field surveys, statistical analysis, expert evaluations, and mapping were often used as the main research methods. Four key challenge areas have been revealed: anthropogenic pressure on soils and vegetation, urban green spaces (UGS) and their quantity and quality for ES provision, the value of ES assessment for urban planning, and payments for ES. To address these challenges, future research should focus on the role of urban ES for city resilience and sustainability, ecosystem disservices, rural-urban interactions, broader testing and validation of ES mapping and assessment as well as better integration of ES in economic, regulatory and compensation

Environmental Audit of Anthropogenically Disturbed Territories: Problems and Growth Points (A Case Study of Kaliningrad Oblast)

2025 · ARTICLE · en

The study demonstrates that the modern conditions of economic development and the requirements of environmental security call for more advanced mechanisms for assessing environmental conditions, especially in anthropogenically disturbed territories. The article summarizes the available information and provides a brief overview of studies that detail the concept of environmental auditing. It is substantiated that the regulatory framework for conducting environmental audit procedures should play the role of the primary tool for implementing state policy of supporting sustainable production. The sequence of development and implementation of standards for environmental management and auditing systems both in the Russian Federation and globally is considered. The article proposes an algorithm for conducting environmental audits of territories, which includes five stages, taking into account functional zoning based on landscape planning tools, assessment of conflicts in environmental management associated with natural and anthropogenic risks, and introduction of a modern GIS system based on geoecological monitoring. The article describes the problems associated with environmental audits of territories, which are caused by an imperfect regulatory framework, insufficient funding, high cost of implementation, and absence of objective assessment strategies of the risks and of permissible impacts on natural environments. It is stated that it is necessary to improve the existing environmental management system and to increase the role of environmental education of the public, especially employees of enterprises and municipal administration bodies. A system for optimization of environmental management is developed; it consists of natural, geoecological, social, and economic subsystems. The example of Kaliningrad oblast, located on the southeastern coast of the Baltic Sea, is used as a case study to develop recommendations on the use of environmental audit mechanisms and tools to achieve more balanced, rational, and secure regional environmental management.

Изменения климата и угрозы здоровью населения в Калининградской области

2025 · ARTICLE · ru

Цель. На общем фоне глобального потепления климата изучить региональные особенности этого процесса как фактора риска здоровью населения Калининградской области. Процедура и методы. Исследование базируется на данных о среднемесячной и годовой температуре воздуха и количества осадков метеорологических станций Калининградской области за различные периоды 1949–2022 гг. Выполнена статистическая обработка временных рядов с выявлением трендов и аномалий на основе стандартных программ. Результаты. Отмечены положительные эффекты изменения климата, в частности, увеличение длительности периода с температурой воздуха выше 10˚С до 160–180 дней в году. Средняя скорость потепления в последние десятилетия в самом западном регионе России достигает 0,49˚С/10 лет, в отдельные месяцы (февраль, март) превышает 0,6˚С/10 лет. Охарактеризована тенденция увеличения числа дней с аномально высокой температурой воздуха, превышающей 29,5˚С за последние 30 лет в 3 раза. Нарастающая экстремальность изменения климата, волны жары отнесены к ведущим факторам риска здоровью. Приведены примеры тепловых волн, влияющих на заболеваемость сердечно-сосудистой системы и смертность населения, распространение природно-очаговых инфекций, в частности, болезнь Лайм-боррелиоза. Установлено, что в Калининградской области вспышки заболеваемости, вызванные иксодовыми клещами, происходили в годы с экстремально высокой температурой воздуха в зимне-весенние периоды. Теоретическая и/или практическая значимость. Сделаны выводы о необходимости расширения исследований в области влияния погодно-климатических факторов на здоровье человека в целях улучшения качества жизни населения Калининградской области.

Allotments for all? Social–environmental values of urban gardens for gardeners and the public in cities: The example of Berlin, Germany

2024 · ARTICLE · en